Bracketology 2/15
Welcome back to another edition of Justin Fitzgerald’s Bracketology. With Selection Sunday less than four weeks away, there’s still a lot of movement within the bracket. There’s plenty of quality wins to be had, boosting teams at the top of the ballot and on the bubble.
The selection committee revealed its Top 16 seeds yesterday, which held for only a few hours after four of the Top 16 seeds(No.6 Villanova, No.10 West Virginia, No.11 Tennessee,No.16 Missouri) lost yesterday. That’s how quickly things can change in this process, and the committee will be tinkering with the bracket right up until it’s revealed.
Before I get into the bracket, here are some things I’ve noticed about this season.
All hail the Big 10 and Big 12. The two conferences are the best in the country, and it isn’t particularly close. In my latest bracket, the Big 10 and Big 12 combine for three of the four No.1 seeds, and 14 of the 37 at-large bids. The 16 combined bids are almost one-fourth of the entire 68 team field. No games in either conference are easy, and the Big 12’s home-and-home against every team is the best way to prove who deserves to be the conference champion. Heading down the stretch, it looks like all seven Big 12 teams currently in the field will stay in. The picture in the Big 10 is a little less clear, with Indiana and Minnesota flirting with the bubble and Maryland looking to get hot late and get in the field. Penn State was on the same level on the Terps before suffering a home loss at Nebraska yesterday.
The ACC is weak. The conference is actually three points better as a whole than last year according to Kenpom’s conference efficiency metric, but lacks the usual championship contenders. Both Duke and North Carolina are currently having down years, with the Tar Heels on the bubble and the Blue Devils likely missing the tournament for the first time since 1995. Virginia is the only current ACC team that is a top-4 seed, though Florida State can get there before season’s end. The lack of really good teams means less opportunity for quality wins. In a usual year in the ACC, a team like Virginia at No.6 in the NET would be in the hunt for a No.1 seed. I currently have them as a No.3 seed, and I don’t think they can do enough to get on the one line from here on out.
Why Gonzaga over Baylor. This is splitting hairs. The Bulldogs and Bears are clearly the two best teams, and are both more than five points better than any other team according to Kenpom’s efficiency metric. Gonzaga has seven quadrant one wins, while Baylor has six. They both have four wins over teams ranked in the NET’s Top 20. But the Bulldogs are ranked first to the Bears second in Kenpom, ESPN BPI and Strength of Record metric, as well as Jeff Sagarin’s ratings. That’s enough to give Gonzaga the slight edge.
Keep an eye on the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West. It’s a battle at the top of these conferences, with no team solidly in the field. VCU is at the top of the Atlantic 10 at the moment thanks to a suffocating defense, and St. Bonaventure is currently in the field as an at-large. Richmond is trying to fight back into the tournament field after picking the wrong year to beat Kentucky, and the same can be said for St. Louis, who spent time in the AP Top 25 but has played only four games since Dec. 23. Utah State is currently leading the Mountain West, and probably wouldn’t make the tournament as an at-large. San Diego State is solidly in the field at the moment, but like any mid-major, can go straight to the bubble with a bad loss or two. Then there’s Boise State and Colorado State, who will be looking to play their way off the bubble as Selection Sunday nears.
Other mid-majors to watch. BYU is in the field, and will likely stay there if it takes care of business the rest of the way. The Missouri Valley race is one to watch too, with Loyola Chicago and Drake both battling to see who gets the automatic bid and who has to worry about the bubble. Several other teams such as Belmont, Colgate, Toledo, UC Santa Barbara, Western Kentucky, Winthrop and Wright State have upset potential.
Below is the bracket. Automatic qualifiers are currently in bold. I had trouble trying to keep top four seeds from the same conference in different regions, and had to break that once with Baylor and West Virginia together in Region 2. I’m also including some games to watch this week for bubble or seeding reasons.
Region 1
(1) Gonzaga (West Coast) vs. (16) North Dakota State (Summit)/North Carolina A&T (MEAC
(8) Arkansas vs. (9) Minnesota
(5) Creighton vs. (12) Utah State (Mountain West)
(4) Texas Tech vs. (13) UC Santa Barbara (Big West)
(6) Kansas vs. (11) Stanford/Boise State
(3) Iowa vs. (14) Winthrop (Big South)
(7) Colorado vs. (10) Indiana
(2) Virginia vs. (15) Vermont (America East)
Region 4
(1) Ohio State vs. (16) Sam Houston State (Southland)
(8) Florida vs. (9) Louisville
(5) Florida State vs. (12) Western Kentucky (Conference USA)
(4) Texas vs. (13) Belmont (Ohio Valley)
(6) Rutgers vs. (11) Oregon
(3) Villanova (Big East) vs. (14) Grand Canyon (WAC)
(7) Clemson vs. (10) VCU (Atlantic 10)
(2) Houston (AAC) vs. (15) Siena (MAAC)
Region 2
(1) Baylor (Big 12) vs. (16) Prairie View A&M (SWAC)/Mount St. Mary’s (NEC)
(8) San Diego State vs. (9) LSU
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) Drake/Colorado State
(4) Tennessee vs. (13) Wright State (Horizon)
(6) Purdue vs. (11) North Carolina
(3) West Virginia vs. (14) UNC Greensboro (Southern)
(7) BYU vs. (10) Seton Hall
(2) Illinois vs. (15) James Madison (CAA)
Region 3
(1) Michigan (Big Ten) vs. (16) Texas State (Sun Belt)
(8) Loyola Chicago (Missouri Valley) vs. (9) Xavier
(5) Missouri vs. (12) Colgate (Patriot)
(4) USC (Pac-12) vs. (13) Toledo (MAC)
(6) Virginia Tech vs. (11) Saint Bonaventure
(3) Oklahoma vs. (14) Liberty (Atlantic Sun)
(7) Oklahoma State vs. (10) UCLA
(2) Alabama (SEC) vs. (15) Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
Moving into the field: VCU, Western Kentucky, Colgate, Wright State, James Madison, Vermont, North Dakota State, Mount St. Mary’s
Moving out of the field: UConn, UAB, Navy, Northeastern, Cleveland State, UMBC, South Dakota, Fairleigh Dickinson
Last Four Byes: Indiana, Saint Bonaventure, Oregon, North Carolina
Last Four In: Stanford, Drake, Boise State, Colorado State
First Four Out: Maryland, UConn, Saint Louis, Ole Miss
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Richmond, SMU, Penn State
Games to Watch
Feb. 15: #7 Virginia at #16 Florida State, 7 p.m., ESPN. A rare opportunity for both teams to get a quality win. These are the only two ACC teams in the Top 25 of the NET.
Feb. 16: Florida at Arkansas, 7 p.m., ESPN2. The Razorbacks will be looking to build off a signature win against Missouri, their first against a team ranked in the NET Top 50. The Gators didn’t play last week and will be looking to continue their march toward an at-large bid.
Feb. 17: Syracuse at Louisville, 6:30 p.m., ACC Network. As is tradition this time of year, the Orange are on the bubble. Another Quadrant 1 win would put them closer to in the field. Louisville, who’s played just one game since Jan. 27, would feel a lot better about its at-large chances if it won this one.
#12 Texas at #9 Oklahoma, TBD. The Sooners have been at their best against the nation’s best, winning five against teams ranked in the AP Top 25. The Longhorns are still trying to find their footing after a recent slump, winning two straight after dropping four of five. Oklahoma squeaked by with an 80–79 win in Austin on Jan. 26. Expect another close game.
Utah State at Boise State, TBD. Neither team will want to lose this one. The Aggies are clinging to first place in the Mountain West, and a win at the Broncos would be another Quadrant 1 win. For the Broncos, it’s about stacking wins to stay in the at-large conversation. The two teams will battle again two days later.
Feb. 18: #11 Iowa at #21 Wisconsin, 7 p.m., ESPN3. Both teams are 3–4 in their last seven games. That can happen in the brutal Big Ten, but both teams want to start playing their best basketball down the stretch. This is the perfect chance to start doing that.
Colorado at Oregon, 11 p.m., ESPN2. Colorado is likely going to be in the field, though it never hurts to pick up another road win. The Ducks have battled injuries all year, but have won three straight and are trying to play their way off the bubble.
Feb. 19: Western Kentucky at North Texas, 8 p.m. This will be a battle for first place in Conference USA. The Hilltoppers win over Alabama is one that has only gotten as the season has worn on. Keep an eye on Western Kentucky junior Charles Bassey, a former top-10 recruit, who’s averaging 18 points, 11.7 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game.
Feb. 20: #5 Illinois at Minnesota, TBD. The Illini have won five games in a row since losing to Maryland and Ohio State, but it will be a huge challenge to knock off the Gophers at Williams Arena. Minnesota is 13–1 at home, with wins over Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State and Purdue, and another Quad 1 would be a huge boost to a confusing tournament resume.
#18 Virginia Tech at #16 Florida State, 12 p.m. ACC Network. The two teams had their Feb. 7 matchup postponed. It will be the end of a tough week for the Seminoles, and a chance for the Hokies to pick up another quality win as they look to lock down another at-large bid.
Louisville at North Carolina, 6 p.m., ESPN. It’s a big week for the Cardinals. Two wins would give them a little more separation from the bubble and allow them to breathe easy down the stretch. The Tar Heels are better than last year, but an at-large bid is no guarantee at this point.
Feb. 21: #3 Michigan at #4 Ohio State, 1 p.m., CBS. Two arch-rivals face off in one of the best matchups so far this season. Both teams are battling for No.1 seeds, and a win here would go a long way to getting one.
